If one listens only to the opinions of the “old media” and the academic experts who frequent them, Donald Trump appears to be a mercurial, arrogant, and chaotic figure—hardly someone of presidential caliber. However, I cannot, even for the sake of politeness, call such analyses sharp. Mr. Trump often says one thing while intending another; therefore, it is a mistake to criticize only his superficial remarks. In that regard, conservative YouTube programs often provide proper explanations of the logic behind his actions. Many of the commentators and journalists there conduct thorough research and possess their own unique sources. I believe individuals should judge for themselves after consuming both sides, but I personally find the latter more credible.
That said, I do not believe Mr. Trump is so brilliant that every move he makes is meticulously calculated. In particular, his view of macroeconomics is somewhat peculiar. Since the post-pandemic stimulus, the United States has faced a long period of high inflation. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has generally remained below 3% year-on-year since late 2024, it still exceeds the 2% target. Furthermore, the current account deficit—a metric I repeatedly emphasize as an indicator of economic overheating—stands at approximately 4% of GDP. Although a current account deficit is less of a concern for the issuer of the reserve currency than for other nations, it has nonetheless reached a significant level. Conventionally speaking, it would be logical to conclude that further accelerating growth—or, in other words, increasing the pace of domestic production—is no easy feat. In contrast, Mr. Trump advocates for nothing but inflation-stoking policies: raising tariffs, cutting taxes, restricting the inflow of foreign labor, and demanding that the Fed lower interest rates. Such measures will only accelerate inflation and fail to make the citizenry wealthier.
I have repeatedly argued that the Japanese government should pursue expansionary fiscal policy by issuing bonds aggressively, but that logic does not apply universally. I make that claim specifically because I have concluded that the Japanese economy has yet to escape its state of deficient demand. It is vital to accurately discern which phase an economy is currently in, and a conventional judgment suggests that Mr. Trump’s macroeconomic management is dangerous. If he isn’t just posturing and truly pushes for full-scale economic stimulus, there is a risk that the next global economic crisis will originate in the United States. This is my tentative conclusion, and it is precisely why I believe Japan must swiftly transition to an economy driven by domestic demand.
However, the conclusion would differ if it turns out that the 2% inflation target is actually too low and that the U.S. economy possesses the potential to achieve even higher growth. As I am not an expert on the American economy, I have no particular opinion on this point. Or rather, I simply do not know. The answer will likely reveal itself by observing the U.S. economy over the next few years.
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