This blog’s primary purpose isn’t pure politics, but economics and politics are two sides of the same coin. In a previous post, I expressed concern over the DPP nominating Shiori Yamao for the House of Councillors election. As feared, the party’s approval ratings have plummeted across various polls—a predictably dismal development.
Among the parties currently holding seats in the Diet, only four explicitly champion fiscal expansion: the DPP (at the forefront), Reiwa Shinsengumi, Sanseito, and the Conservative Party of Japan. Other parties are either dominated by fiscal hawks or are too ambiguous to be classified as true expansionists.
Within this “Expansionist Four,” the DPP occupied a unique position as a moderate, center-right force capable of drawing support from both labor unions and LDP voters. They have a relatively large number of lawmakers and a deep bench of talent. Had they stuck to a simple, powerful message—”Break the 103-man yen wall” and “Cut the consumption tax”—they were virtually guaranteed a landslide victory in the upcoming Upper House election.
A Series of Fatal Errors
The first sign of trouble was the proposal for “Youth-Only Tax Cuts.” This is, quite frankly, a disastrous policy.
- Betraying Universal Appeal: While the LDP-Komeito coalition obsessed over handouts for low-income households, the DPP gained momentum by advocating for the “103-man yen wall” removal—a policy that benefits a broad segment of the population. Why pivot now to pander to a specific age demographic? For those of us past our youth, it only creates a sense of unfairness. The party seems oblivious to the fact that they are under far more scrutiny now than in the past.
- Short-Sightedness: Young people aren’t foolish enough to be bought by a temporary tax break. “Youth” ends in a flash, and they will soon find themselves on the side of those being taxed. In an economy where wages aren’t rising, such age-gated policies only increase future anxiety and hinder marriage and child-rearing. The priority must be “increasing take-home pay for all generations.”
The Yamao Scandal and Fragmented Identity
Then came the nomination of Shiori Yamao. The backlash was exactly as expected. If you are fighting on policy alone, candidates don’t need to be celebrities; they just need to be reliable representatives.
More concerning is the “political odor” surrounding recent events: the Yomiuri Shimbun’s sudden advocacy for female-line succession (Matrilineal Emperors) and Yamao’s alignment with that stance, coupled with the labor confederation (RENGO)’s increasingly anti-tax-cut rhetoric. The imperial succession issue is far more sensitive than “separate surnames for spouses.” It must not be used as a wedge to splinter the fiscal expansionist camp. Some YouTube analysts even suggest the “old media” is scheming for an LDP-CDP coalition to sideline expansionists.
Conclusion: A Wasted Opportunity
Finally, there is the proposal to extend national pension contributions, which I have already condemned in a separate post.
The most important goal right now is to achieve an economy with rising real wages, which requires maximizing the number of fiscal expansionists in the Diet. In this light, the DPP’s current wandering is profoundly regrettable. Even if Yamao were to be removed from the ticket (as eventually happened following the public outcry), it’s unclear if support will return or if it will flow to other expansionist parties. It is a tragic state of affairs for Japan’s economic future.
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