While former Agriculture Minister Eto struggled to effectively lower rice prices, he was eventually forced to resign after remarking, “I have never actually bought rice. My supporters give me so much that my pantry is overflowing with it.” His successor, Shinjiro Koizumi, however, moved swiftly to realize a reduction in rice prices. Subsequently, former Agriculture Minister Nomura, who hails from the agricultural cooperatives (JA), criticized him, stating, “Minister Koizumi takes after his father; he makes decisions on his own and announces them to the media without much consultation,” adding, “He needs to learn the rules.” This has created a public narrative of Shinjiro fighting against the vested interests of the “old guard” agricultural tribe in the LDP—a move reminiscent of the “Koizumi Theater” staged by his father, Junichiro Koizumi, in his battle over postal privatization.
Watching conservative commentary on YouTube, some suggest that a certain government ministry is pulling strings behind the scenes. Even if that were the case, I am inclined to give credit for the actual lowering of rice prices. As I am not an expert on agriculture or produce distribution, I am not in a position to deliberate further on the specifics of rice pricing.
The real issue, however, lies in the recent opinion polls, which show a marked recovery in approval ratings for the LDP. This is likely due to the heavy media coverage of Shinjiro regarding the rice issue. I had previously feared that the self-destruction of the Democratic Party for the People might lead to a pro-tax coalition between the LDP, Komeito, and the Constitutional Democratic Party. Yet, the momentum from this “Koizumi Theater” may now lead directly to a Shinjiro Koizumi premiership under the existing LDP-Komeito framework.
While I acknowledge Shinjiro’s role in lowering rice prices, it is merely a case of finally neutralizing the LDP’s prior failures in failing to curb price hikes. It is essentially a “match-and-pump” scenario (creating a problem only to solve it), so it hardly deserves high praise from any objective observer. The situation would be different if he could pave a path toward strengthening a rice production system that is clearly facing shortages, but does Shinjiro possess the insight and political capital for such a feat?
In a previous blog post, I pointed out that the policies of his father, Junichiro, were the exact opposite of what the country needed. In my view, neither fiscal austerity nor structural reform was necessary. In another post, I harshly criticized Shinjiro’s arguments for deregulating dismissal rules, noting that his underlying premises were flawed. Since his policy direction mirrors that of his father, Shinjiro is a highly precarious figure. Should he become Prime Minister, it could very well lead Japan into a “Lost 40 Years.”
コメント