On July 19, the Mainichi Shimbun published a fact-check article titled, “Is it true that an increase in foreigners prevents Japanese wages from rising? We ask the experts.” The piece examines the validity of claims made by parties like the Sanseito and the Japan Conservative Party. In it, self-proclaimed experts argue that the impact is minimal or that “it’s impossible to tell due to a lack of data.” Furthermore, a “Yahoo! News Expert” commented that “since many foreign workers take jobs that Japanese people are reluctant to do, there is no competition for employment or wages between Japanese and foreigners.”
Every price in existence is determined by market supply and demand. Therefore, it is a self-evident truth—beyond any need for debate—that an increase in the supply of foreign labor exerts downward pressure on the wages of Japanese workers. While the minimum wage is a regulated price, any pay above that level can be set freely. Unless there is extraordinary evidence to the contrary, one cannot claim the impact is “minimal.” According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, the number of foreign workers reached 2.3 million as of October 2024.
Kyodo News reports that 10% of convenience store staff are now foreign nationals. Beyond convenience stores, in sectors like food service, nursing care, and construction, it is actually rare to find a workplace composed entirely of foreigners. I truly wonder what these so-called “experts” are thinking.
The argument that “we don’t know because there is no data” is, in a sense, an honest admission. However, if that is the case, we should immediately halt the intake of new workers and conduct a thorough investigation of the actual situation. Given that real wages have been declining for nearly 30 years, such a response is only natural. The urgency is high.
To be clear, I am not suggesting that the presence of foreign workers should never be permitted. My point is simply that it becomes a problem if their presence hinders wage growth. Acceptance should only occur after rules are properly established.
For instance, wouldn’t it be inspiring if the hourly wage for a convenience store clerk rose to around 2,000 or 2,500 yen? While this would certainly create some inflationary pressure, that is an inevitable trade-off. Convenience stores that aren’t sufficiently profitable would either have to stop 24-hour operations or exit the market altogether. In a market economy, such “metabolism” (structural turnover) is unavoidable. Moreover, it is precisely because labor costs rise that companies are incentivized to innovate or increase capital investment to reduce manpower. Simply accepting more foreign labor stifles these positive, forward-looking movements.
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